Which NFL Teams Perform the Best Against the Spread in 2024?

The 2024 NFL season has been a rollercoaster ride so far this term. Unlikely Super Bowl contenders have emerged seemingly out of nowhere in the form of the Washington Commanders and the Pittsburgh Steelers, while genuine heavyweights such as the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys have fallen by the wayside. One constant that has remained, however, is the dynasty-like Kansas City Chiefs.

Led by the mercurial Patrick Mahomes, KC has opened up their quest for a history-making threepeat in perfect fashion, winning all nine of their opening games. Their most recent triumph came in dramatic manner, blocking a last-gasp game-winning field goal attempt by their divisional rival Denver Broncos at Arrowhead, sparking scenes of jubilation both on the field and in the stands. The bookies have sat up and taken notice of the Chiefs’ blistering start, with online betting sites installing the reigning back-to-back champions as a +400 favorite to make it three on the spin in February.

But while Mahomes and Co. have won every game this season, they have only covered the spread on five occasions. The spread is a betting market that places a handicap on both teams in an NFL game to make it more competitive from a betting standpoint. As the Chiefs are the dominant force in the league, they often have an almighty point handicap that they need to win by for punters to win their spread bets.

Unfortunately for said punters, the Chiefs haven’t covered as often as many would like. But which teams have? Here are the best teams in the league for beating the spread in 2024.

Washington Commanders

The Washington Commanders have been a revelation this season, both for their supporters and for bettors. The capital city outfit headed into the new campaign with relatively low expectations courtesy of their young roster. However, quarterback Jayden Daniels – selected with the second overall pick of the 2024 draft – has proven to be a sensation. He has been in blistering form to help the Commanders build up an impressive 7-3 record, leaving them on the brink of a return to the playoffs.

Washington has not only picked up seven victories but they have also covered the spread on seven occasions as well. Their ability to cover is attributed to a robust defense and a resilient offense that has shown a knack for performing under pressure. Key victories as underdogs against the Cincinnati Bengals and as heavy favorites against the likes of the Carolina Panthers have seen the Commanders’ backers cash in, and they will be hoping that Daniels and Co. provide a similarly safe betting haven throughout the second half of the season.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Like the Commanders, the Pittsburgh Steelers had similarly low expectations in the close season. They sneaked into the playoffs last term and many thought that they were unlikely to do so again, especially considering they added not one but two questionable quarterbacks in the form of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. However, the Pennsylvania outfit has defied its naysayers at every turn this season, amassing an impressive 7-3 record as they take the fight to the Baltimore Ravens in the battle for AFC North glory.

Thanks to a mean defense that has given up just 146 points this season, the lowest in the league by some distance, the Steelers have regularly covered the spread. The fact that they have continually been either narrow underdogs or slight favorites has certainly helped, as Pittsburgh has eked out numerous wins this term, but the margins of victory have been enough to cover. They face a difficult end to the campaign as they go against their divisional rival Cincinnati Bengals both home and on the road, before the campaign is out, and coming through those tests unscathed will be crucial to their playoff ambitions.

Detroit Lions

Heading into week ten, the Detroit Lions had covered all but once this season. They headed to face the high-flying Houston Texans as a 3.5-point favorite for the win, but it looked as though things would come crashing down as the visitors slumped to a 23-7 halftime deficit. Despite Jarred Gof throwing five interceptions, the NFC North champions came roaring back to life in the second half, reeling off 19 unanswered points to claim the victory via a game-ending field goal.

Unfortunately for punters, however, the three-point margin of victory meant that the Lions did not cover the spread for just the second time this season, missing out by just half a point in one of the worst bad beats of the campaign. Known for their explosive offense led by the reliable Goff under center, the Motor City side has consistently exceeded expectations in high-scoring affairs. Their ability to cover spreads comes from a high-octane offense that can rack up points quickly, keeping games competitive even when trailing, just as we saw against the Texans. If they continue in a similar vein throughout the rest of the campaign, punters will certainly be happy, while supporters may well have the opportunity to watch their team in the Super Bowl for the first time.